October 2025 Market Performance Review

Tracking Prices, Jobs, and Housing Shifts Across Lake Geneva and Beyond

As the third quarter closed and autumn settled across Wisconsin, housing markets nationwide entered a new phase of moderation. After nearly two years of sustained volatility—driven by inflationary pressures, fluctuating mortgage rates, and supply imbalances—data from September and early October 2025 show a gradual re-balancing of conditions. The shift is evident both nationally and locally, with sellers recalibrating pricing expectations and buyers responding to renewed affordability pressures.

This month’s review draws on national indicators from Keeping Current Matters (KCM), regional and local performance data from Metro MLS, and agent sentiment from the Burns Real Estate Consulting Survey, complemented by employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Together, these sources outline a housing environment defined by slowing appreciation, slightly higher inventory, and an increasingly segmented marketplace.

1 National Overview: A Gradual Normalization

Nationally, the September and October numbers suggest a cooling but still resilient housing economy. According to the KCM Monthly Market Report, the active listing count across the United States remains higher than one year ago, confirming that inventory is slowly rebuilding after pandemic-era shortages

. Roughly 20 percent of active listings recorded a price reduction in August, indicating more realistic seller behavior after the rapid run-ups of 2023 and 2024.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reports annual home-price appreciation of roughly 3–4 percent through mid-2025, down sharply from the 6–7 percent range seen a year earlier

This cooling aligns with a broader softening in consumer demand as higher borrowing costs curb speculative buying.

Inflation, measured by the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, remains elevated but stable near 2.9 percent year-over-year, compared with more than 5 percent in 2023. The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance—holding the federal-funds rate around the mid-5 percent range—has kept 30-year fixed mortgage rates hovering between 6.5 and 7.2 percent. These levels, while high by historical standards, have allowed pricing to decelerate without triggering a broad downturn.

“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented,” notes Anthony Smith, senior economist at Realtor.com, emphasizing that the divergence between fast-growing Sun Belt metros and steadier Midwest markets will persist through the fall

2 Employment and Economic Context

Labor-market data continue to show remarkable stability. The U.S. unemployment rate held near 4.1 percent in September 2025, while wage growth eased to 3.8 percent year-over-year, according to the BLS. National job openings remain elevated at roughly 8.7 million, underscoring persistent labor tightness despite slowing corporate expansion.

The combination of stable employment and moderated wage growth has created a mixed backdrop for housing: consumer confidence has improved modestly, but affordability remains strained. The Burns Real Estate Agent Survey (September 2025) found that 43 percent of agents described current buyer demand as “steady but price-sensitive,” while 28 percent cited rising seller concessions as evidence of a gradually shifting power balance.

Homebuilders are responding similarly. Builder confidence, as measured by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, slipped two points in September, reflecting concerns about material costs and labor shortages. Yet new-construction permits nationwide were up 3 percent month-over-month, signaling optimism for 2026 deliveries as supply pipelines reopen.

3 Regional Midwest Snapshot

In the Midwest, price trends continue to track near the national mean but with less volatility. According to the FHFA Regional Index, Midwest home-price growth averaged 3 percent year-over-year through August, compared with 4.8 percent nationally. Midwest metros such as Chicago, Milwaukee, and Minneapolis report modest single-digit appreciation, offset by slightly longer days on market and increased use of seller credits.

Affordability remains the region’s key advantage. Median sale prices in most major Wisconsin sub-markets remain well below coastal levels, attracting relocation buyers from Illinois and northern Indiana. Commuting and hybrid-work flexibility continue to support cross-state migration into Walworth, Kenosha, and Rock County communities.

4 Wisconsin Market Performance

Statewide, Metro MLS data for September 2025 indicate a modest rebound in listing activity. New listings increased 7.8 percent year-over-year, while closed sales slipped 2.5 percent

. The median sales price rose from $354,900 to $369,000 (+4 percent), confirming ongoing though moderated appreciation.

Days on market climbed from 38 to 50 (+31 percent), suggesting slower absorption as buyers take longer to secure financing. Sellers received 93.8 percent of their original list price, down 1.4 points from 2024, a small but meaningful signal of negotiation returning to the table.

State inventory is improving: single-family supply increased 6.3 percent year-over-year, and townhouse/condo listings were up 4.8 percent. These gains, while incremental, mark the highest statewide inventory since 2020.

Economically, Wisconsin mirrors national trends—employment steady, inflation moderate, but consumer confidence uneven. Manufacturing output in Southeastern Wisconsin improved 1.2 percent quarter-over-quarter, while logistics employment around Milwaukee and Walworth County expanded 2.3 percent thanks to continued e-commerce activity.

5 Walworth County Market Highlights

Walworth County, encompassing Geneva Lake, Delavan, and Williams Bay, reflects the broader state trend toward normalization but maintains a premium position within the region. County-wide data from Metro MLS (September 2025) show:

• New Listings: 180 (+7.8 % YoY)
  
  
• Closed Sales: 118 (-2.5 % YoY)
  
  
• Median Sales Price: $369,000 (+4 %)
  
  
• Days on Market: 50 (+31 %)
  Walworth County
  
  

The county’s price resilience is supported by ongoing in-migration from Chicago’s collar counties and Madison-area retirees seeking recreational or second homes. While the share of listings receiving multiple offers has declined, upper-tier properties continue to attract cash and 1031-exchange buyers.

Inventory is improving at both ends of the price spectrum. Supply for homes between $300K and $500K rose 6 percent, and luxury listings above $1 million grew 10 percent year-to-date. This has eased some of the scarcity that characterized 2023 and early 2024.

Condominium performance was steadier: median price appreciation hovered near 3.5 percent, with absorption rates indicating roughly 2.5 months of supply—still below equilibrium but notably better than last year’s 1.7 months.

6 Local Lens: Lake Geneva – Williams Bay – Delavan

Drilling down to the Geneva Lake sub-market, Metro MLS data (prepared October 10, 2025) highlight nuanced conditions:

• New Listings: -5.8 percent month-over-month but +7.3 percent year-to-date
  
  
• Closed Sales: -10.8 percent month-over-month but +4.2 percent year-to-date
  
  
• Median Sales Price: $460,000 (+24 percent YoY for September, reflecting a small sample size of high-value sales)
  
  
• Days on Market: 59 days, up nearly 79 percent from the same month last year
  
  

Despite the short-term volatility from a limited transaction base, the six-month weighted average shows median prices roughly flat year-to-date (-2.2 percent). The data imply a normalization of listing composition rather than a price collapse—luxury resales and lake-adjacent properties continue to skew the monthly median upward.

Price Range Analysis

According to the Walworth County Single-Family Sales Report (October 2025), 31 percent of year-to-date transactions fall between $300K and $500K, while 10 percent exceed $1 million

Walworth County Condo Sold List…

. Average price per square foot reached $279, up 6.5 percent year-over-year, with median $PSF of $233 (+4.7 percent). Cumulative days on market averaged 55, nearly unchanged from 2024, showing a market that is measured yet active.

Condominiums tell a slightly different story: price gains concentrated in the $300K–$500K segment (+7 percent YTD), while units below $200K declined due to reduced investor activity.

7 Affordability, Rates, and Mobility

Mortgage rates remain the dominant factor shaping buyer sentiment. According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average 30-year fixed rate in October hovered around 6.9 percent, only 20 basis points below the summer peak. KCM forecasts a gradual decline to the mid-6 percent range by mid-2026 if inflation continues to moderate

Affordability ratios across Wisconsin have deteriorated slightly since 2022, with median household income covering roughly 83 percent of a median mortgage payment (compared to 92 percent three years ago). However, Lake Geneva and Delavan remain comparatively affordable versus Chicago or the North Shore, supporting ongoing in-migration and second-home purchases.

Population mobility patterns also show continuing interest in amenity-rich rural counties. Realtor.com’s September traffic data rank Walworth County in the top 25 percent of Midwestern counties for out-of-metro buyer searches, with notable interest from Cook, DuPage, and Lake Counties in Illinois.

8 Tariffs, Construction Costs, and New Supply

The construction sector faces continued headwinds from global trade disruptions and tariff uncertainty. According to the Burns Real Estate Consulting Survey, 72 percent of builders cited “material cost volatility” as a major concern heading into Q4 2025. Lumber prices have stabilized, but copper, aluminum, and electrical components remain elevated due to supply-chain constraints.

Local developers in Walworth County report extended timelines for projects near Geneva National and Town of Delavan. Permitting delays and utility hook-up costs continue to pressure builders, though demand for new inventory remains solid in the $400K–$600K range. With labor markets tight, average construction employment wages rose 5.1 percent year-over-year, offsetting some efficiency gains from material cost declines.

9 Market Outlook: Measured Optimism

As October draws to a close, the data portray a market transitioning from rapid correction to sustainable balance. Key signals for Q4 2025 include:

• Stabilized pricing: Annual appreciation in Walworth County between 3–5 percent suggests a healthy floor for values.
  
  
• Improving inventory: Listings are growing gradually, bringing absorption rates closer to pre-pandemic norms.
  
  
• Persistent demand: Inbound migration from Illinois and in-state urban centers continues to fuel buyer activity.
  
  
• Cautious builders: New construction starts are rising slowly but remain below replacement levels, supporting long-term price stability.
  
  

In summary, Lake Geneva and its surrounding communities enter the final quarter of 2025 on solid footing. While sales volume has softened and days on market have lengthened, the region’s structural advantages—waterfront amenities, strong tourism, and accessible pricing—continue to attract a diverse buyer base. For homeowners, the data affirm that equity remains intact; for buyers, conditions are becoming more rational and negotiable.

Report Prepared for YourWiscoHome.com by Kim & Joel Reyenga, eXp Realty

Data Sources: Metro MLS, Burns Real Estate Consulting, Keeping Current Matters (KCM), Realtor.com, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (October 2025).