Fall 2026 Housing Market Report: National, Wisconsin and the Lake Geneva Area

by Kim & Joel Reyenga

By Kim and Joel Reyenga, eXp Realty | YourWiscoHome.com

Quick answer: August 2026 was the month the national, state and local markets all slowed at once. Wisconsin home sales fell 8.3 percent year over year after rising 10.2 percent in July. Prices did not follow. The statewide median rose 7.1 percent to $362,000. Mortgage rates climbed back above 7 percent and the Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16.

This report covers August 2026 data. September figures publish in our next report.

What this report covers

Housing data runs on a lag. August is the most complete set available, drawn from sources that do not share a database: the Wisconsin REALTORS Association, Metro MLS, NAR, Realtor.com, Redfin, ResiClub and our own MLS records. Rate figures carry their own date, because rates move daily.

We do not forecast. The last section lists what is scheduled to publish and where each number stands today.

Rates went back over 7 percent

Source	30-year fixed	As of
Mortgage News Daily	7.19%	September 17
Freddie Mac weekly survey	6.95%	September 17
Mortgage Bankers Association	6.85%	September 9

Mortgage News Daily recorded 7.24 percent on September 16, the top of a 52-week range that runs from 5.99 percent. Freddie Mac rose 19 basis points in a week and stood at 6.26 percent a year ago. Other loan types on September 17: 15-year 6.81, jumbo 7.35, FHA 6.81, VA 6.83, 7/6 ARM 6.70.

The 10-year Treasury crossed 5.00 percent. The 30-year Treasury reached 5.33.

Why the three disagree. Mortgage News Daily publishes daily. Freddie Mac and the MBA publish weekly surveys. When rates move fast, a daily number and a weekly average will not match. All three are correct on their own basis. Buyers weighing a purchase across the state line can read owning from Illinois.

The mortgage spread, the gap between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage rate, averaged 1.94 points in July 2026 against a 1.77 point average since 1972, per ResiClub using Freddie Mac data.

The Federal Reserve raised rates

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate on September 16, 2026, and signaled one additional move this year. Treasury yields moved lower the next day.

The Fed does not set mortgage rates. Mortgage rates track demand for mortgage-backed securities, which trade like bonds. Our latest seller market update covers the prior month.

The economy is sending two different signals

August data pointed in opposite directions. We report both and draw no conclusion.

Stronger than expected:

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for third-quarter growth rose to 5.1 percent from 4.4 percent
August retail sales rose 1.2 percent against 0.8 percent expected
Weekly jobless claims came in at 196,000 against 208,000 expected

Weaker:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index fell 0.1 percent in August to 99.5, its first monthly decline since March. Its six-month growth rate is negative 0.1 percent.
Consumer expectations were a significant drag and building permits declined across nearly all regions
The Conference Board forecasts 1.9 percent real GDP growth for 2026 and revised 2027 down to 1.8 percent

No recession signal was triggered. The Conference Board's diffusion index held at 55, above the 50 threshold in its recession rule.

National housing in August

Existing home sales fell 2 percent from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, down 1.2 percent from a year earlier and the first reading below 4 million since June 2025.

Bill McBride of CalculatedRisk summarized the month this way: sales historically low, the seasonally adjusted rate very low for 4 years, months of supply at its highest level in over a decade, inventory growth possibly picking up again, and the median price up 1.6 percent year over year but peaked for the year.

Inventory is rising but has not returned to normal. Realtor.com counted 1,140,000 active listings in August, up 3.6 percent year over year, its fastest growth this year. Inventory still sits 11.1 percent below typical pre-pandemic levels. Realtor.com titled its August report "Price Cuts Catch Up, Pending Sales Turn Negative."

Redfin reported that in the four weeks ending September 13, the median sale price rose 2 percent to $397,633, homes sat a median of 46 days, and pending sales fell 3.5 percent week over week to their lowest in nearly three years.

Pending sales rose 0.3 percent, housing starts came in at 1.275 million against 1.309 million expected, builder sentiment fell, and purchase mortgage demand ran 19 percent below a year earlier.

Prices are rising in most of the country and falling in some of it

ResiClub, using the Zillow Home Value Index through August, reports national home prices up 1.3 percent year over year.

Of the 300 largest metro markets, 54 are falling year over year and 246 are rising. Among the 50 largest, 21 are negative. ResiClub notes Hartford, Connecticut sits 29.0 percent above its 2022 peak while Austin, Texas sits 27.6 percent below its own.

The Midwest is the exception

All 30 of the largest Midwestern metro markets posted year-over-year price gains, per ResiClub using the Zillow index, July 2025 to July 2026.

Metro	Year-over-year
Rockford, IL	+8.5%
Green Bay, WI	+5.6%
Milwaukee, WI	+5.3%
Chicago, IL	+4.8%
Madison, WI	+2.9%
US national aggregate	+1.1%

ResiClub attributes this to a milder run-up during the pandemic years, less homebuilding than the Sun Belt, and prices that stayed closer to local incomes.

The counterweight, in their own reporting. Moody's Analytics measures how far prices sit above or below their historically normal level relative to local incomes.

Metro	Q2 2022	Q2 2026
Green Bay, WI	24.1%	39.6%
Milwaukee, WI	21.1%	29.8%
Madison, WI	22.0%	22.2%
Chicago, IL	2.1%	7.1%
US national	6.0%	29.3%

ResiClub's stated conclusion is that the most likely path is mild deceleration rather than a material correction, with price growth running below local income growth for a stretch of years. That is their view, not ours. How lake association structures price is covered in our lake association study.

Wisconsin: sales turned in August, prices did not

The Wisconsin REALTORS Association released its August report on September 18, 2026. It shows the clearest turn of the year.

Month	2025 sales	2026 sales	Change
June	7,333	7,909	+7.9%
July	6,952	7,662	+10.2%
August	7,162	6,571	-8.3%

That is an 18-point swing between July and August. Sellers preparing a file should read how to prepare a second home.

Prices went the other way. The statewide median rose 5.9 percent in June, 6.8 percent in July, and 7.1 percent in August to $362,000.

Year to date, Wisconsin sales are still up 3.2 percent, at 46,722 against 45,256. Our Town and Country study reports the region on one basis.

August by area, per WRA:

Area	Sales change	Median 2026	Median change
Wisconsin	-8.3%	$362,000	+7.1%
Southeast Region	-9.2%	$387,000	+10.2%
Walworth County	-13.7%	$445,000	+5.8%
Racine County	-14.3%	$350,000	+13.5%
Kenosha County	-18.0%	$360,000	+12.5%
Jefferson County	+2.1%	$392,000	+10.4%

From WRA's July report: supply held at 4.2 months against a 6-month balanced benchmark, the statewide Affordability Index fell 4.1 percent over 12 months, and the share of homes listed under $350,000 fell from 68.9 percent in June 2021 to 46.2 percent in June 2026.

WRA states Wisconsin has technically been a seller's market for nine years. Our regional overview covers how this market is organized.

Milwaukee metro, August 2026, per Metro MLS across Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha counties: the median rose 8.9 percent to $409,900, days on market held at 19, inventory rose 11.0 percent and months of supply moved from 2.0 to 2.3. Our condominium study covers that segment.

Our local numbers

Our own MLS records cover Walworth, Racine, Kenosha, Waukesha and Jefferson counties. All figures run January 1 through August 31 and exclude multi-family.

Year to date, by county:

County	Sales change	Median 2026	Median change	Days on market
Walworth	+0.4%	$401,000	+8.2%	27 to 23
Racine	+14.3%	$363,000	+6.0%	20 to 18
Kenosha	+17.5%	$417,500	+17.4%	18 to 18
Waukesha	+17.5%	$489,950	+4.8%	16 to 8
All five counties	+4.6%	$410,000	+7.9%	23 to 20

County-level guides for the communities we cover sit in our regional community guides.

The August slowdown reached us. Closings across the five counties fell 8.0 percent in August, and Walworth fell 8.7 percent, matching the direction of the statewide number. But the year is up. Through August, closings rose 4.6 percent and the median rose 7.9 percent.

Homes are selling faster, not slower. Walworth County days on market fell from 29 to 21 in August. Year to date the five-county median fell from 23 days to 20.

Lake Geneva, Delavan and Williams Bay, year to date: 312 closings against 316, a median of $400,450 against $360,000, up 11.2 percent, and days on market down from 29 to 18.

Metro MLS reports the same three communities for August at a $423,194 median, up 11.4 percent, with days on market falling from 89 to 36. Sellers preparing a listing can read how to price a home to sell.

Waterfront ran opposite the market. Across our five counties, waterfront closings rose from 58 to 74 year to date and the median rose from $865,000 to $1,100,000. The lakefront study reports all 26 lakes on the same basis.

One number needs an explanation. WRA reports Walworth County's August median at $445,000. Metro MLS reports $425,000. Our own records show $423,274. All three are correct, because they aggregate different sets of transactions, the same way Freddie Mac and Mortgage News Daily print different rates in the same week. A single month in a county this size rests on roughly 140 sales, and Metro MLS prints its own caution that one month can look extreme on a small sample. See appraisal gaps.

What to watch, and when

Nothing below is a prediction. Each line says where a number stands and when the next publishes.

When	What	Where it stands
Mid-October	WRA September report	August sales fell 8.3%, median $362,000
October 1	Our September MLS pull	This report covers through August 31
October 22	Conference Board LEI	Fell 0.1% in August, first decline since March
Next Fed meeting	Federal Reserve decision	Raised September 16, signaled one more
Weekly, Thursdays	Freddie Mac survey	6.95%, in a 5.99 to 7.24 range
Monthly	NAR existing home sales	3.98 million, first below 4 million since June 2025
Ongoing	The mortgage spread	1.94 points against a 1.77 long-run average

On seasonality. Realtor.com identifies September 27 through October 3 as the best week nationally to buy, based on listing data, reporting 3.5 percent lower prices than the seasonal peak, 13.3 percent more listings and 14.4 percent fewer buyers.

Two caveats from Realtor.com itself. Its economist Hannah Jones says shopping earlier in fall gives the broadest selection while waiting later may bring more price flexibility. And the national window holds in only 14 of the top 50 metros, ranging from early September in New York City to late November in Miami.

A note on temporary rate buydowns

A temporary buydown is a payment subsidy, not a lower loan. Because rates moved the way they did this year, the mechanics are worth reviewing.

In a 2-1 buydown, the borrower pays as though the rate were 2 points lower in year one and 1 point lower in year two, then the full note rate from year three. Under the Fannie Mae Selling Guide, the rate cannot rise more than 1 point in a year during that period.

Lenders qualify the borrower at the full note rate, not the reduced one.

Published examples put the step-up near $293 a month on a $400,000 loan between year two and year three. One published 3-2-1 example steps from $2,017 in year one to $2,844 in year four, a 41 percent increase.

The structure assumes a refinance before the step-up. Refinance applications are depressed at rates near 7 percent, and the 30-year has spent 2026 in a range topping at 7.24 percent.

Two views, both from outside our firm. Melissa Cohn of William Raveis Mortgage points to a potential Iran peace agreement and falling oil prices as reasons rates may fall. Published buydown analysis argues the opposite, that a refinance is not a plan at current rates, and that borrowers grow accustomed to the year-one payment and find the reset difficult even though it was disclosed at closing.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac added new rate buydown disclosures in 2026.

If you bought with a buydown, your closing file lists the step-up date and the step-up amount. Both are worth finding before the date arrives. Owners across the state line can read selling from Illinois.

Frequently asked questions

What are mortgage rates right now?

Mortgage News Daily put the 30-year fixed at 7.19 percent on September 17, 2026, after reaching 7.24 percent on September 16. Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed 6.95 percent, up 19 basis points on the week, against 6.26 percent a year earlier. The 52-week range runs from 5.99 to 7.24 percent. The 10-year Treasury crossed 5.00 percent.

Did home sales fall in Wisconsin in August 2026?

Yes. The Wisconsin REALTORS Association reported existing home sales down 8.3 percent from August 2025, at 6,571 against 7,162. That followed a 10.2 percent increase in July. Year to date, statewide sales remain up 3.2 percent.

Are home prices going up or down in Walworth County?

Up, on every source. The Wisconsin REALTORS Association reported Walworth County's August median at $445,000, up 5.8 percent year over year. Our own MLS records show a year-to-date median of $401,000 through August, up 8.2 percent, with days on market falling from 27 to 23.

Why do different sources report different median prices?

Because they aggregate different sets of transactions. For Walworth County in August 2026, the Wisconsin REALTORS Association reported $445,000, Metro MLS reported $425,000 and our own records show $423,274. All three are accurate on their own basis, the same way Freddie Mac and Mortgage News Daily publish different rates in the same week.

How long are homes taking to sell near Lake Geneva?

Less time than a year ago. Across Walworth, Racine, Kenosha, Waukesha and Jefferson counties, the year-to-date median fell from 23 days to 20. In Lake Geneva, Delavan and Williams Bay it fell from 29 days to 18. Metro MLS reports those three communities at 36 days in August against 89 a year earlier.

Is the Midwest housing market still rising?

Yes, on the most recent reading. ResiClub reports all 30 of the largest Midwestern metro markets posted year-over-year price gains through July 2026, against a national aggregate of 1.1 percent. Milwaukee rose 5.3 percent, Green Bay 5.6 percent, Chicago 4.8 percent and Madison 2.9 percent. Moody's Analytics separately measures several Midwestern markets as further above their historically normal level relative to incomes than they were in 2022.

What happens when a temporary mortgage rate buydown expires?

The payment rises to the full note rate. In a 2-1 buydown the borrower pays as though the rate were 2 points lower in year one and 1 point lower in year two, then the full rate from year three. Published examples put the step-up near $293 a month on a $400,000 loan. Lenders qualify borrowers at the full note rate from the start, so the permanent payment was part of the original approval. The step-up date and amount appear in the closing file.